A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
